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The 2026 Trustees Report pulls the retirement trust fund's depletion forward a year and widens the 75-year gap by 16%, partly because the 2025 tax law cut revenue from taxing benefits.
The Congressional Budget Office's new baseline shows deficits $1.4 trillion higher than previously projected through 2035, a gap large enough that it raises real odds of higher taxes on high earners down the road.
The 2025 tax law cut individual taxes by about $129 billion, but paycheck withholding was never updated, so much of that cut, including the $40,000 SALT cap, arrives as a refund this spring.
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